Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years

There has been more and more talk about renewable energy sources being needed, in order to cut CO2 emissions from burning coal and oil. Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology discussed solar energy in that book, and still believes it is the future source for our energy needs. From LiveScience:

Solar and wind power currently supply about 1 percent of the world's energy needs, Kurzweil said, but advances in technology are about to expand with the introduction of nano-engineered materials for solar panels, making them far more efficient, lighter and easier to install. Google has invested substantially in companies pioneering these approaches.

Regardless of any one technology, members of the panel are "confident that we are not that far away from a tipping point where energy from solar will be [economically] competitive with fossil fuels," Kurzweil said, adding that it could happen within five years.

The reason why solar energy technologies will advance exponentially, Kurzweil said, is because it is an "information technology" (one for which we can measure the information content), and thereby subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns.

The 1% figure is a bit misleading. The US in 2006 got 0.7% from wind and only 0.1% from solar. But that still projects to 100% for solar, if it continues to double at the current rate.

Wide spread use of solar isn't something we'll see anytime soon. But, some interesting new technology is being developed that should make them more cost effective. How about printing them?

Massachusetts-based Konarka Technologies, Inc, a company with a healthy history of commercial experience, developed and demonstrated a commercial-grade process for printing cells on inkjet printers. All quips about inkjet cartridge costs aside, the new process holds tremendous potential to revolutionize the solar photovoltaic industry.

Typical photovoltaics require a clean room to maintain the delicate manufacturing conditions necessary in order to carry out silicon spin coating and other steps in the manufacturing process. These clean rooms are extremely expensive to build and maintain. While traditional photovoltaics can be profitable, Konarka's inkjet phtovoltaics promise to dramatically lower their cost, making solar power suddenly very competitive in terms of energy production per installation cost. Better yet, it will likely reduce the time it takes to produce the cells and allow for easier expansion of capacity.

Interesting times may be ahead.